The future doesn’t just appear, it is constantly developing. By looking for, by listening for clues to how the future is developing you won’t be surprised by it. And, instead of simply reacting to a changing world, you can anticipate future developments, help influence and shape those developments and leverage them earlier than your competition.
You’re probably wondering how.
Most of what you need to know about the future is available right now. Though it’s often hidden among other noise, not always obvious or easy to interpret, and it may also be easy to misinterpret or disregard.
Information about the future comes in three flavors: Weak signals, Leading indicators and Trends; each with its own time horizon and influence on differentiation and innovation.
Weak signals are “imprecise early indications about impending impactful events”[i] that are possible rather than probable. They are currently small and seemingly insignificant events that could indicate future trends. They represent emerging issues, “that will affect how we do business, what business we do, and the environment in which we work,”[ii] in the years to come.
Weak signals offer insight into what customers want and help you spot looming industry and market disruptions sooner than your competitors. Weak signals are essentially signs of change that are not yet generally appreciated. They are glimpses into a future that doesn’t yet and may never exist.
Hearing a siren off in the distance is a weak signal. You know something is happening. You just don’t know what. When a fire truck drives by you have more insight.
Over time weak signals either turn out to be false signals or turn into leading indicators.
Leading indicators point to events and changes that are highly probable, though not certain. Checking the traffic light in the cross lane is a leading indicator as it’s highly probable the light in your lane will turn green right after the cross lane light turns red.
Modifications to existing regulations are also a good leading indicator. Relaxation of regulations leads to disruption from within the sector, while tighter regulation leads to disruption from outside.
A Trend is a general tendency or direction in which something is already moving, developing or changing. It’s a shift in mentality or behavior that has influenced a significant number of people.
If you first become aware of a new trend or breakthrough through a popular blog, magazine article or television show it may already be too late to capitalize on it, as “the competition has noticed and has already begun retooling.”[iii] Being late to the trend party is less useful for differentiation, but may still useful for remaining relevant.
Insights are more valuable the sooner you get them, which is why keeping weak signals on your radar offers the biggest leverage.
Taking advantage of weak signals
The typical reason organizations are disrupted is not because they ignore threats to their business. It’s that they fail to recognize or acknowledge that threats to their business even exist.
The first step to gaining advantage from weak signals is to recognize and acknowledge that they exist then dedicate time and resources to picking up on the subtle signs of market shifts and potential disruptions.
When you ignore weak signals you soon ask, “Why didn’t I think of that?”
Recognizing seeds of change early provides a strategic advantage. By focusing on what is likely to happen next you can plan more effectively for the future and introduce more successful initiatives to your organization and customers.
“What becomes immediately clear is that organizations that consciously decide to tune in to these far-off, fuzzy, intermittent signals get critical information faster than those who wait for it to arrive in a neat, orderly bandwidth.” S. Gryskiewicz
You get tuned into weak signals by simultaneously watching, reading, listening to and scanning a wide range of sources, often at “the blurry zone at the edge of an organization’s vision.”[iv]
Your organization has a limited ability to see or hear weak signals when you focus too much on internal thoughts and insights. When your organization is more open to external ideas and information sources you are more likely to both see and hear the weak signals, and ultimately leverage them.
This means looking beyond your own sectors to understand potential transformations and disruptions that could impact:
- your partners, suppliers or customers
- others in your organization’s ecosystem
- adjacent markets
- or could create new market opportunities for you.
Sources of weak signals include, for example, news articles beyond the sources you typically follow and trust, rumors posted to social media, or the novelty products offered at the tiny booth stuck in the far corner of the tradeshow floor.
Spotting weak signals also requires having your eyes and hears on multiple sources long enough to notice changes. This takes intentionality and consistency.
Only the largest organizations need someone watching and listening for weak signals full time, but just about every organization can do more of it than they do now.
The goal is to extract actionable insights from the signals—the patterns and meaning hiding within the data collected.
“Recognizing and interpreting weak signals into timely decision making is critical to your business, and it takes skill and focus.”[v]
Individual weak signals don’t necessarily require a response, but if you’re paying attention you get a heads-up that there may be something significant, and possibly uncomfortable, coming your way. When you become aware of weak signals that are intensifying or when disparate signals start to align, ask why.
Once you’ve identified weak signals that deserve further scrutiny, engage in deeper and richer analysis to help you proactively decide whether and how to act.
[i] H. I. Ansoff and Edward McDonnell, Implanting Strategic Management, Prentice Hall, 1990, page 20
[ii] B. Coffman, Weak Signal Research, Part I: Introduction, Journal of Transition Management, 1997
[iii] S. Gryskiewicz, Positive Turbulence: Developing Climates for Creativity, Innovation, and Renewal; Wiley, 1999, page 12
[iv] George Day and Paul Schoemaker, Scanning the Periphery, Harvard Business Review, November 2005
[v] Martin Zwilling, How Good Is Your Business At Reading Weak Signals, Forbes, December 14, 2013.
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